Mapping the Global Future

Among the most valuable documents prepared by America’s intelligence community are the series of “Global Trends” reports that are compiled by the National Intelligence Council.  The purpose of the reports, as explained by the current chairman of the NIC, Dr. Tom Fingar, is to bring together some of the nation’s foremost experts to discuss the trends, drivers and factors that will influence the events of the future and that therefore must be anticipated and understood by policymakers.  Dr. Fingar, who is also the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis, came to CNP to discuss the most recent Global Trends report, which looks at the national security horizon through 2025.

Dr. Fingar discussed six main trends of the world today that are shaping the way events will unfold throughout the next decade and beyond.  The first dimension he talked about was the “transformed character of the world,” and the increasing interdependence between people and states for everything from economic markets to resources and the ever-increasing effect that events in one area of the world, such as a natural disaster or economic slow-down, can have on places across the globe.  Next, he discussed the changing demographics around the world, namely the “aging of the West” and the “rapid growth in the East.” Each scenario is accompanied by a set of economic and political issues that countries, both developed and developing, must grapple with in order to maintain security.

Third, Dr. Fingar explained the impact that the growing global economy—and growing global economic inequality— will have on international affairs.  Where this growth occurs will also have a major ripple effect as the economies of countries like India and China race to keep up with their booming populations. Forth on Dr. Fingar’s list was the changing potential for conflict around the world.  In some ways, the possibility of international conflict has been lessened by globalization and interdependence.  However, trends such as the spread of technology and nuclear proliferation, just to name a few, may have also made regional or international instability more likely. 

Fifth, Dr. Fingar pointed out that the capacity of the international system to deal with the changes in the world community will be vital to maintaining global security. New issues are arising that will challenge the ability of the traditional international system to foster global stability, whether that means the United Nations, regional alliances, or bilateral agreements.  Lastly, according to Dr. Fingar, the role of the United States will clearly be a large determinant of international security.  As the world’s sole superpower, changes made by the United States and how it approaches world affairs will impact the entire international system. 

In sum, as stated by Dr. Fingar, “the range of problems that we face today is wildly different than the ones a few years ago. It’s going to continue to be both wider and more varied and the demands for expertise are going to be even greater in the decade ahead than they are now.”