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World at Risk

Following their testimony before a joint hearing of the Senate Arms Services and Homeland Security Committee, Senator Bob Graham and fellow Commissioners Robin Cleveland and Tim Roemer gathered at CNP for an afternoon discussion on the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism's newly released report, World at Risk.  The Commissioners shared their views and recommendations for addressing the nexus between terrorism and proliferation in the poorly governed parts of Pakistan, the prevention of biological and nuclear terrorism, and the potential erosion of international nuclear security, treaties, and norms while the use of nuclear energy worldwide continues to grow.
 
Senator Graham noted that the WMD Commission was the product of the 9-11 Commission's finding that the next catastrophe facing the United States would most likely result from weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of terrorists. He then outlined the Commission's four main findings: (1) America's margin of safety is smaller today not because we have not acted but because it's adversaries are moving more quickly, (2) It is more likely than not that there will be a weapon of mass destruction used somewhere in the world between now and the end of 2013, a finding that was echoed recently by the Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell, (3) It is more likely that a biological weapon will be used than a nuclear weapon, due partly to the fact that biotechnology has spread globally and biological pathogens are poorly secured as compared to nuclear material, and, (4) there has been an increase in terrorist networks and increased desire of adversaries to acquire and use a weapon of mass destruction.

Graham focused his remarks on the Commission's 13 recommendations that address a combined application of hard power and soft power, particularly in Pakistan; impact on Russia and its nuclear materials; the extension of Nunn-Lugar type agreements; and strengthening security controls.

Commissioner Robin Cleveland noted that problems in combating bioterrorism "stem in part because we have to balance our interest in protecting the country with our interest in protecting and preserving academic freedom of research and the extraordinary advances that have come from the life sciences community." She noted three problem areas in addressing bioterrorism:  turf wars among the intelligence community, lack of community-wide security and safety procedures, and the lack of a single entity charged with setting procedures.  She outlined a series of the Commission's recommendations to address these problems including assigning HHS to lead an interagency team to look at the Select Agent Program, requiring DHS to develop a national strategy for microbial forensics, and requiring HHS and DHS to step up efforts to improve management and security of the high-containment labs and to look at how to oversee and coordinate management, security and accountability at other facilities within the U.S. and around the world.

CNP President Roemer noted that Osama bin Laden was correct after 9-11 when he said that it was not 19 Arab armies or 19 Arab states that targeted the United States; it was 19 postgraduate students that carried out the attacks and killed 3,000 people. "When those 19 people in cells around the world can get in to the United States, get access to airplanes as weapons of mass destruction, do an assault, a Marine-type assault, meticulously planned, in Mumbai, attack trains in Madrid, and go after subway systems in London, nightclubs in Bali, we know that this trend between the proliferation and the terrorists is an extremely worrisome one for the United States." Congressman Roemer discussed four specific ideas for addressing issues in Pakistan including aggressive incursions against Al Qaeda in the FATA, doing a better job of securing Pakistan's nuclear weapons, promoting an economic surge in Pakistan to improve the balance of military and smart power assistance, and doing a better job of defining and defeating the ideology that al Qaeda is espousing. Mr. Roemer also noted that of the 41 recommendations made by the 9-11 Commission, about 39 passed, but a major recommendation – reforming Congressional accountability for intelligence and security issues, has not been sufficiently addressed, leaving a "dysfunctional" committee system. Not only should Congress focus immediately on this legislative responsibility, but there should also be a designated individual in the executive branch working directly with the President of the United States on the threat of weapons of mass destruction, Roemer said.

• The next administration must make preventing the world's most dangerous weapons from falling into the world's most dangerous hands among its top national security priorities.

• This effort will require strong coordination and cooperation between branches and departments across the US government.

• Promoting improved education and economic circumstances are vital in the fight against terrorism, not just hard power.