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Avenues to a Stable and Prosperous Beijing-Taipei Relationship

The Center for National Policy hosted a discussion with three of the foremost experts on cross-Strait relations: Dr. Kwei-Bo Huang, Director of the Center for Foreign Policy Studies at National Chengchi University, Dr. Scott Kastner of the University of Maryland and Dr. Wei Zongyou of Shanghai International Studies University. These experts provided an overview of cross-Strait developments and suggested practical steps that could further improve the warming relationship between Taiwan and China's mainland.

All three experts agreed from the outset that the election of Ma Ying-jeou as President of the Republic of China has considerably improved cross-Strait relations. Dr. Wei Zongyou noted that, for the first time in years the cross-Strait relationship has exhibited "positive signs" after years of "hostility and bitterness." Dr. Kwei-Bo Huang called this a "trial and practice period" - where both sides are testing approaches to improve the relationship. Delving into specifics, Dr. Wei Zongyou outlined the positive steps Ma Ying-jeou has taken to restore or improve cross-Strait communications and economic and cultural links; including restoring travel links between Taiwan and the mainland and the easing of restrictions on cross-Strait investment. Dr. Kwei-Bo Huang echoed this appraisal and suggested that economic and transportation affairs have been the priority thus far.  

Dr. Wei Zongyou then went on to describe lasting challenges that could potentially stall further improvement. These include DPP opposition to Ma Ying-jeou, American military support of Taiwan and, more interestingly, the potential of moving too quickly in attempting to improve relations. He noted that moving too fast could create unrealistically high expectations as well as fostering the perception in Taiwan that the government was "selling out" to the mainland.

Dr. Wei Zongyou then offered some advice to both sides starting with the need for effective and open dialogue. For Taiwan, he outlined the need for consensus building and bipartisanship in Taiwan. For China, he suggested that the government should consider allowing Taiwan to hold observer status in the World Health Organization. The Chinese government should also consider unilaterally withdrawing some of the missiles currently aimed towards Taiwan. Finally, he argued the Chinese government needs to stop stalling the move towards liberalization and democracy. Without this, the prospect of unification is grim. Finally, he suggested that the United States work with both sides and especially to engage with China militarily to instill confidence. For his part, Dr. Kwei-Bo Huang argued that the Chinese government needs to start reaching out to the DPP opposition in Taiwan. A relationship needs to be built to assure that if the DPP regains power in Taiwan all progress will not be lost.

Dr. Kwei-Bo Huang went on to describe what he considers a viable avenue to a prosperous and stable cross-Strait relationship called "the PEACE avenue". This approach focuses on facing the political reality and making compromises, economic interdependence, armed tension-free negotiations, coordination on less sensitive issues, and finally exchanges- of people and ideas.  

Finally Dr. Kastner described what a possible China-Taiwan peace agreement would look like. He argued that the core of any agreement would be "straight-forward," i.e., trading off "some pledge by Taiwan not to seek legal independence in exchange for some pledge from Beijing not to use, or threaten to use, military force against Taiwan, conditional obviously on Taiwan upholding its end of the bargain."

He went on to describe the legitimate skepticism that exists towards the notion that a peace agreement would actually reduce the possibility of military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait. More specifically he argued, "the PRC's military capabilities have grown rapidly and they are likely to continue to grow rapidly for some time. If the balance of power continues to shift, it is not obvious that the PRC will be able to make credible promises not to use military coercion as a way of maneuvering Taiwan for unification. And of course, it will be unclear whether future leaders, on either side, would honor promises made by leaders today. Would, for example, a future DPP government honor promises made by a Ma Ying-jeou administration?"

Dr. Kastner concluded by suggesting that pursuing a peace agreement would be worthwhile. Due to the domestic effort required and the political capital that would have to be expended to reach an agreement, both sides would have incentives to see the agreement succeed. In addition, the effort would also help to form a domestic consensus in both China and Taiwan. Finally, an agreement would potentially reduce or remove the element of uncertainty (over each sides red line and underlying intentions) that makes the cross-Strait relationship potentially so dangerous.