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Arming Taiwan: Impact on Asian Security and US-PRC Relations

Highlighting an issue that is both a source of strain for the U.S.- PRC relationship and of vital importance for the U.S.- Taiwan relationship, the Center for National Policy hosted Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation and Ted Galen Carpenter of the CATO Institute to discuss the latest Taiwan Arms Package.

To frame the discussion, Chen provided a historical analysis arguing that because Taiwan was taken from China by force after the first Sino-Japanese war in 1895, the Taiwan issue has existed for well over 100 years. Fast forwarding to more recent times Cheng outlined U.S. policy, noting that the United States has always acknowledged the "one China principle" but has never subscribed to it. The goal of the United States is to see a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue but until that time it will maintain the status quo by providing Taiwan with defensive armaments under the Taiwan Relations Act. Because it has been long-standing U.S. policy to oppose the rise of a hegemonic power in East Asia, ensuring continued stability in the Taiwan Strait is something that serves American interests in both the short and long term.

Carpenter took a focused view of the current arms package noting that it is rather tame and was not unexpected. Although the PRC shouted loudly in anger he noted that it has not yet followed up with action. He went on to emphasize that in many cases the decision to move ahead with arms packages are not based on careful consideration of national interest, but rather simple mundane politics and in this case probably wanted to reward Ma Ying-jeou for being a solid ally. Although tensions in the Strait are currently low, Carpenter noted that conciliatory actions by President Ma towards the PRC have only served to "kick the can down the road" and have not altered the fundamental problem that Beijing views Taiwan as "stolen territory" and will eventually want it back. Ominously he predicted that the PRC and the U.S. will eventually have a confrontation over the Taiwan issue unless the U.S. "backs away," noting that the Chinese anti-access strategy will make that proposition increasingly dangerous for the United States. In the end, Carpenter supports continued arms sale, but opposes any implicitly security guarantee.