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The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008

The Center for National Policy was proud to host author and reporter Thomas Ricks for a discussion about his new book, The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008.  A special military correspondent for the Washington Post, Ricks previously covered military issues for the Wall Street Journal, where he was [Tom Ricks] a reporter for 17 years.  He was part of Pulitzer Prize-winning teams at both newspapers, in 2000 and again in 2002.  His book FIASCO: The American Military Adventure in Iraq was also a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 2007. 

Ricks' remarks were focused on the change in US military strategy in Iraq, commonly referred to as the "surge." According to Ricks, the surge represented a profound and difficult change in the way that America approached operations in Iraq.  But despite the hard-won gains in security achieved by the "surge," Ricks labeled it a "failure" for failing to facilitate political reconciliation on such major issues as the sharing of oil revenues, power sharing between Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds and whether Iraq should function more as a confederation or should be ruled by a strong central government.  This, in turn, has laid the groundwork for what he predicts will be a "slow unraveling" of stability as America withdraws troops.

Ricks was not optimistic about the potential of elections in Iraq. "In America," he said, "national elections generally mark the end of a period of political feuding and the beginning of reconciliation.  In Iraq, national elections are about 'winner take all.'"

In the wake the surge's apparent failure, Ricks predicts more trouble ahead, with increased problems in 2009.  Without political consensus and with declining American troop strength to referee ethnic disputes, Iraqis are likely to resume conflict. Ricks argued that predicting that factional leaders will try to leverage America's increasing dependence on indigenous forces to achieve sectarian gains.  Moreover, Ricks warned that Iraq's coming instability might adversely impact America's strategy in Afghanistan as an upswing in violence in Iraq might slow the removal and transition of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan. Ricks also posited that "if Afghanistan falls apart, it's bad; if Pakistan, with its nuclear weapons and Islamic extremists, falls apart, it would be catastrophic."

As for where American strategy must go from here, Ricks stated that "staying in Iraq is immoral, but leaving is even more immoral," concluding, "I think Iraq is going to end up being America's longest war."