Printable Version

Bob Shrum and Ross Douthat

Bob Shrum

The future of the Republican party is bleak in the near future but it would be unwise to dismiss the Grand Old Party's chances and proclaim a permanent Democratic majority.  This was the conclusion of a panel comprised of political commentators Bob Shrum and Ross Douthat, hosted at the Center for National Policy's annual Policy Day retreat for CNP supporters.

In the wake of Preisdent Bush's large disapproval numbers, the Iraq war and the global recession, Douthat and Shrum agreed that the Republican Party "brand" had suffered a severe blow as of late.  Furthermore, the panelists highlighted that the defeat of centrist Members in the 2008 elections had left the party's Congressional wing insulated from moderating voices, promoting a more base-centric agenda, shorn of appeals to the crucial center.  Most alarming for conservatives, Douthat explained, are polls that indicate declining numbers of young voters identifying as Republican, potentially influencing future voting patterns.

Ross Douthat

Both panelists agreed, however, that the Republican Party's fortunes do not necessarily foretell the arrival of a permanent Democratic majority.  Pointing to the midterm election setbacks President Reagan faced in his first term, Shrum reminded listeners that even immensely popular presidents like Barack Obama are subject to the laws of political gravity.  While President Obama currently enjoys high approval ratings despite large public policy challenges, Shrum cautioned, he still needs to prove he can forge a coalition of liberal and moderate Democrats who will implement his agenda.

Looking at the Republican Party's long term future, Douthat noted that Republican party's success lies in addressing the concerns of a broader demographic of voters outside the traditional Republican using conservative principles.  While acknowledging the importance of the "New England Republican" constituency, Douthat urged the party to engage minorities and the middle class, offering Nevada's growing Hispanic middle class as an example of a test demographic for the party. 

Key to each party's political success, both panelists agreed, will be their ability to fashion and market an agenda that caters to America's independent middle class voters.