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China's Satellite Shootdown: Omen or Opening?

A CNP Conversation with John Pike and John Tkacik

February 12, 2007

Concerned about China's January 11 test of it's new anti-satellite (ASAT) capability, the Center for National Policy hosted a lunch-time discussion with John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org and John Tkacik, Senior Research Fellow in Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation to discuss its implications. The conclusions were sobering.

To frame the discussion, Pike forcefully argued the network of U.S. orbital surveillance satellites are the lynchpin of American military power and are essential to effectively project that power around the globe. Although aircraft carriers are the most visible instruments used to conduct operations overseas, spy satellites are the first responders to any crisis. Without them the United States could be left unaware that a crisis situation exists until it is too late.

Both experts agreed that the shootdown was only the latest test of Chinese anti-satellite programs. Previous efforts included near-shootdowns and laser targeting trials. In the fall of 2006, the PRC successfully "blinded" an American satellite using a high-power, ground-based laser.

Working to clear up some of the confusion about what these tests mean Tkacik discussed their implications. His first point, emphatically argued, was that these tests are directed solely at the United States. Because no other power has as expansive a satellite network, nor relies on one as extensively as the United States, the Chinese are striking at what they perceive as America’s Achilles heel. For him, capabilities clearly reflect intent.

This leads Tkacik to two key conclusions: first, the Chinese intend to confront the United States in space. Although the United States chose not to antagonize the Chinese following their previous tests in the hopes of salvaging the possibility of peaceful cooperation in space, this most recent test has worked to dash such optimism. Second, reacting to questions on what should be done in response to these developments both men urged serious investment in a stealth satellite capability. "We should continue doing what I hope we are doing now," Pike said, "and that is developing stealth satellites." Doing so could minimize the threat posed by the Chinese ASAT program without being overtly confrontational.

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